Papers - Artefactual

Antoni Bosch-Domenech, Jose Garcia-Montalvo, Rosemarie Nagel, Albert Satorra

Cited by*: 42 Downloads*: 14

"Beauty-contest is a game in which participants have to choose, typically, a number in [0,100], the winner being the person whose number is closest to a proportion of the average of all chosen numbers. We describe and analyze Beauty-contest experiments run in newspapers in UK, Spain, and Germany and find stable patterns of behavior across them, despite the uncontrollability of these experiments. These results are then compared with lab experiments involving undergraduates and game theorists as subjects, in what must be one of the largest empirical corroborations of interactive behavior ever tried. We claim that all observed behavior, across a wide variety of treatments and subject pools, can be interpreted as iterative reasoning. Level-1 reasoning, Level-2 reasoning and Level-3 reasoning are commonly observed in all the samples, while the equilibrium choice (Level-Maximum reasoning) is only prominently chosen by newspaper readers and theorists. The results show the empirical power of experiments run with large subject-pools, and open the door for more experimental work performed on the rich platform offered by newspapers and magazines."

Juan-Camilo Cardenas, Jeff P Carpenter

Cited by*: 1 Downloads*: 13

No abstract available

David J Cooper

Cited by*: 6 Downloads*: 13

This paper studies experiments set in a corporate environment where a manager attempts to overcome a history of coordination failure by employees using either financial incentives or communication. I compare the choices of subject managers drawn from a standard undergraduate population with subject managers drawn from the executive MBA (EMBA) program at Case?s Weatherhead School of Management. The EMBA subjects are a group of experienced, successful managers; all of the EMBA subjects have at least ten years of work experience, including at least five years in a supervisory role, and have average annual earnings in excess of $120,000. The EMBA subject managers are able to overcome a history of coordination failure significantly faster than the undergraduate subject managers. This superior performance is driven neither by differences in the financial incentives offered to the employees nor by use of an inherently different communications strategy. Instead, EMBA subject managers are significantly more likely to use the same "good" communication strategy as is identified for undergraduate subject managers through systematic coding of managers messages to employees.

Alessandra Cassar, Lucas Crowley, Bruce Wydick

Cited by*: 1 Downloads*: 13

An important question to microfinance is the relevance of existing social capital in target communities to the performance of group lending. This research presents evidence from field experiments in South Africa and Armenia, in which subjects participate in trust games and a microfinance game. We present moderately strong evidence that personal trust between group members and peer homogeneity are more important to group loan repayment than general societal trust or mere acquaintanceship between members. We also find some evidence of reciprocity in groups: those who have been helped by other members are more likely to contribute themselves.

David J Cooper, John H Kagel, Qing Liang Gu, Wei Lo

Cited by*: 41 Downloads*: 13

We examine strategic interactions between firms and planners in China, comparing behavior between: (i) students and managers with field experience with this situation, (ii) standard versus increased monetary incentives, and (iii) sessions conducted "in context", making explicit reference to interactions between planners and managers, and those without any such references. The dynamics of play are similar across treatments with play only gradually, and incompletely, converging on a pooling equilibrium. A fivefold increase in incentives significantly increases initial levels of strategic play. Games played in context generated greater levels of strategic play for managers, with minimal impact on students.

Juan-Camilo Cardenas

Cited by*: 0 Downloads*: 13

The internalization of external costs arising from a group dilemma between the individual and social interests require the design of institutions through the market, the state or self-governance that are able to induce in the agents a change in their pecuniary and non-material incentives so that their choices are socially desirable. The conventional approach in the economic analysis of the enforcement of the law based mostly on the work of Becker is based on the postulate that those not complying with the law are rationally perceiving a greater benefit from doing so if compared to the expected cost of the sanction by the state, that is the value of the sanction for the law violator multiplied by the probability of detection. Through a series of economic experiments we explore this hypothesis for the case of a typical public good or resource extraction where there is a group externality, and an external regulation that is partially enforced. The results suggest that the strategic response by the agents to the different expected costs of the sanction confirm only partially the hypothesis in the sense that the differences are less than proportional to the differences to the expected costs for the regulated agents. Further, when the results here are compared to exact replications of the experiments with people in the field that face these kinds of dilemmas, the differences in individual behavior across levels of expected costs virtually vanish. It is suggested here that along with the material costs for violators, the individuals may incorporate additional elements in their cognitive process which are consistent with findings from experimental and behavioral economics studies.

William T Harbaugh, Kate Krause, Lise Vesterlund

Cited by*: 77 Downloads*: 13

In this paper we examine how risk attitudes change with age. We present participants from age 5 to 65 with choices between simple gambles and the expected value of the gambles. The gambles are over both gains and losses, and vary in the probability of the non-zero payoff. Surprisingly, we find that many participants are risk seeking when faced with high-probability prospects over gains and risk averse when faced with small-probability prospects. Over losses we find the exact opposite. Children's choices are consistent with the underweighting of low-probability events and the overweighting of high-probability ones. This tendency diminishes with age, and on average adults appear to use the objective probability when evaluating risky prospects.

Bradley J Ruffle, Richard Sosis

Cited by*: 24 Downloads*: 13

No abstract available

Michael S Haigh, John A List

Cited by*: 6 Downloads*: 12

An important class of investment decisions is characterized by unrecoverable sunk costs, resolution of uncertainty through time, and the ability to invest in the future as an alternative to investing today. The options model provides guidance in such settings, including an investment decision rule called the "bad news principle": the downside investment state influences the investment decision whereas the upside investment state is ignored. This study takes a new approach to examining predictions of the options model by using the tools of experimental economics. Our evidence, which is drawn from student and professional trader subject pools, is broadly consonant with the options model.

John A List

Cited by*: 9 Downloads*: 12

Walrasian tatonnement has been a fundamental assumption in economics ever since Walras' general equilibrium theory was introduced in 1874. Nearly a century after its introduction, Vernon Smith relaxed the Walrasian tatonnement assumption by showing that neoclassical competitive market theory explains the equilibrating forces in ""double- auction"" markets. I make a next step in this evolution by exploring the predictive power of neoclassical theory in decentralized naturally occurring markets. Using data gathered from two distinct markets--the sports card and collector pin markets--I find a tendency for exchange prices to approach the neoclassical competitive model prediction after a few market periods.

Juan-Camilo Cardenas, John K Stranlund, Cleve E Willis

Cited by*: 0 Downloads*: 12

No abstract available

Stefan Luckner, Christof Weinhardt

Cited by*: 9 Downloads*: 12

The results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events remarkably accurately. In this paper, we study the impact of different monetary incentives on prediction accuracy in a field experiment. In order to do so, we compare three groups of traders, corresponding to three treatments with different payment schemes, in a prediction market for the FIFA World Cup 2006. Somewhat surprisingly, our results show that performance-related payment schemes do not necessarily increase the prediction accuracy. Due to the risk aversion of traders the competitive environment in a rank-order tournament leads to the best results in terms of prediction accuracy.

Douglas V DeJong, Robert Forsythe, Wilfred C Uecker

Cited by*: 13 Downloads*: 12

Using the data from sealed offer laboratory markets, we compare the price and quality choices of student subjects with those of businessmen subjects. The businessmen subjects were public accounting firm partners and corporate financial officers. This is of interest since the financial officer-auditor relationship is one particular application of the elementary principal-agent model which the laboratory environment was designed to test. Using several different performance measures we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that the average performance of the two subject pools were the same. However, the market using businessmen subjects generally exhibited greater variance than the market using students.

Juan-Camilo Cardenas, John K Stranlund, Cleve E Willis

Cited by*: 14 Downloads*: 12

A large, but inconclusive, literature addresses how economic heterogeneity affects the use of local resources and local environmental quality. One line of thought, which derives from Nash equilibrium provision of public goods, suggests that in contexts in which individual actions degrade local environmental quality, wealthier people in a community will tend to do more to protect environmental quality. In this paper we report on experiments performed in rural Colombia that were designed to explore the role that economic inequality plays in the 'provision' of local environmental quality. Subjects were asked to decide how much time to devote to collecting firewood from a local forest, which degrades local water quality, and how much to unrelated pursuits. Economic heterogeneity was introduced by varying the private returns to these alternative pursuits. Consistent with the Nash equilibrium prediction, we found that the players with more valuable alternative options put less pressure on local water quality. However, the subjects with less valuable alternative options showed significantly more restraint relative to their pure Nash strategies. Furthermore, they were willing to bear significantly greater opportunity costs to move their groups to outcomes that yielded higher average payoffs and better water quality than the Nash equilibrium outcome.

Carlos A Alpizar, Steven Buck

Cited by*: 0 Downloads*: 12

In this paper, we distinguish between horizontal and vertical trust. We investigate how these measures of trust, as well as measures of trustworthiness and risk aversion are related to the probability of rural farmers of having had a loan from a bank. Using experimental and survey data from 191 farmers of the Amazon region of Ecuador, we find that: (1) controlling for risk aversion, women do not trust differently than men in each trust game, however, women compared to men do trust outside professionals more than community members, and (2) isolated rural farmers with stronger preferences for trusting outside professionals experience higher levels of bank loan uptake.

Antoni Bosch-Domenech, Jose Garcia-Montalvo, Rosemarie Nagel, Albert Satorra

Cited by*: 0 Downloads*: 12

This paper develops a finite mixture distribution analysis of Beauty-Contest data obtained from diverse groups of experiments. ML estimation using the EM approach provides estimates for the means and variances of the component distributions, which are common to all the groups, and estimates of the mixing proportions, which are specific to each group. This estimation is performed without imposing constraints on the parameters of the composing distributions. The statistical analysis indicates that many individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning described as iterated best reply (degenerate), and shows that the proportions of people thinking at different levels of depth vary across groups.

Hisaki Kono

Cited by*: 1 Downloads*: 12

Microfinance institutions employ various kinds of incentive schemes but estimating the effect of each scheme is not easy due to endogeneity bias. We conducted field experiments in Vietnam to capture the role of joint liability, monitoring, cross-reporting, social sanctions, communication and group formation in borrowers' repayment behavior. We find that joint liability contracts cause serious free-riding problems, inducing strategic default and lowering repayment rates. When group members observe each others' investment returns, participants are more likely to choose strategic default. Even after introducing a cross-reporting system and/or penalties among borrowers, the default rates and the ratios of participants who chose strategic default under joint liability are still higher than those under individual lending. We also find that joint liability lending often failed to induce mutual insurance among borrowers. Those who had been helped or who had repaid a little in the previous round were more likely to default strategically and repay a little again in the current round and those who paid large amounts were always the same individuals.

Timothy R Berry, William T Harbaugh, Kate Krause

Cited by*: 47 Downloads*: 11

In this paper we examine the extent to which consumption choices by 7 and 11-year-old children and college undergraduates satisfy the axioms of revealed preference. We find that choices by even the 7-year-olds are considerably more likely to obey revealed preference axioms than would be true if they were choosing randomly. 11-year-olds do better still, while college students do no better than 11-year-old children. We also find that mathematical ability is not correlated with choosing rationally. We argue that this evidence suggests that the ability to choose rationally is not innate, but that it does develop quickly.

Steven D Levitt, John A List, David H Reiley

Cited by*: 12 Downloads*: 11

The minimax argument represents game theory in its most elegant form: simple but with stark predictions. Although some of these predictions have been met with reasonable success in the field, experimental data have generally not provided results close to the theoretical predictions. In a striking study, Palacios-Huerta and Volij (2007) present evidence that potentially resolves this puzzle: both amateur and professional soccer players play nearly exact minimax strategies in laboratory experiments. In this paper, we establish important bounds on these results by examining the behavior of four distinct subject pools: college students, bridge professionals, world-class poker players, who have vast experience with high-stakes randomization in card games, and American professional soccer players. In contrast to Palacios-Huerta and Volij's results, we find little evidence that real-world experience transfers to the lab in these games--indeed, similar to previous experimental results, all four subject pools provide choices that are generally not close to minimax predictions. We use two additional pieces of evidence to explore why professionals do not perform well in the lab: (1) complementary experimental treatments that pit professionals against preprogrammed computers, and (2) post-experiment questionnaires. The most likely explanation is that these professionals are unable to transfer their skills at randomization from the familiar context of the field to the unfamiliar context of the lab.

Jeff P Carpenter, Erika Seki

Cited by*: 11 Downloads*: 10

Models of job tournaments and competitive workplaces more generally predict that while individual effort may increase as competition intensifies between workers, the incentive for workers to cooperate with each other diminishes. We report on a field experiment conducted with workers from a fishing community in Toyama Bay, Japan. Our participants are employed in three different aspects of fishing. The first group are fishermen, the second group are fish wholesalers (or traders), and the third group are staff at the local fishing coop. Although our participants have much in common (e.g., their common relationship to the local fishery and the fact that they all live in the same community), we argue that they are exposed to different amounts of competition on-the-job and that these differences explain differences in cooperation in our experiment. Specifically, fishermen and traders, who interact in more competitive environments are significantly less cooperative than the coop staff who face little competition on the job. Further, after accounting for the possibility of personality-based selection, perceptions of competition faced on-the-job and the treatment effect of job incentives explain these differences in cooperation to a large extent.